Tories up 10 points under Bergen: Mainstreet poll

The Federal Conservative Party has skyrocketed in the polls since Candice Bergen took over as interim leader and steered the party back to the right, according to new data from Mainstreet Research.

Bergen took over earlier this month after the Conservative caucus voted to impeach Erin O’Toole, who failed to form government in last September’s federal election after advocating for progressive policies that conservatives traditionally do not favor.

When Mainstreet asked who they would vote for if a federal election were held today, 39% of leaning and decided voters chose the Conservative Party, while 31% chose the Liberals.

Another 15 percent said they would vote for the NDP, while the Bloc Québécois and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) each got 6 percent. The Greens or another party were chosen by two percent of respondents each.

The survey was conducted Wednesday and Thursday among 1,323 Canadian adults using automated telephone interviews.

Mainstreet polls last month showed the Liberals and Conservatives tied, with each party picking 29% of respondents. The PPC got 13% support.

The 10-point jump for the Conservatives comes as Bergen defends protesters who have camped out in Ottawa for 22 days protesting federal vaccination mandates, and as Conservatives oppose the government’s use of the emergency measures, which was invoked to give the police new powers to expel these same protesters.

Conservatives are reaching the point where they can start running for government, said Quito Maggi, CEO of Mainstreet Research.

As Bergen shifts to the right, more than half of the PPC vote went to the Conservatives, he said.

“It’s worked for them, at least so far,” Maggi said.

READ MORE: Bergen’s tenure as interim leader ‘opposed’ to Ambrose’s

But the Liberals would still form the government, according to Mainstreet’s projections: the party would win 152 seats – just seven fewer than it currently has – and enough to form a minority government. The Conservatives would win 132 seats, up from 119 currently.

The NDP would win 21 seats, the Bloc 31 and the Greens would get two.

A map of seat projections based on a national Mainstreet Research poll. (Alex McPhee/Mainstreet Research)

In fact, the Conservatives could win 100% of the PPC vote and not form a government, Maggi said.

The liberal vote is more efficient because even if the party has a lower percentage of the popular vote, it has a higher percentage of the number of seats, he said, and forming a government is a long shot for the conservatives unless they get back in the middle.

READ MORE: Conservative caucus votes to remove Erin O’Toole as leader

The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 2.7% at the 95% confidence level.

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